Crime Science

Table 4 The effects of the state of emergency and ambient population on crime

From: Measuring the impact of the state of emergency on crime trends in Japan: a panel data analysis

	Residential burglary
	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4
	B	S.E.	B	S.E.	B	S.E.	B	S.E.
Trend	- 0.004	0.011	0.012	0.011	-0.015	0.011	- 0.008	0.012
Temperature	-0.038	0.011***	- 0.029	0.011*	-0.021	0.011†	- 0.026	0.012*
State of Emergency
SoE period			-0.002	0.049			0.134	0.074^†
SoE period x intensity			-0.180	0.064**			- 0.047	0.074
Ambient population
Residential					- 0.030	0.010**	- 0.028	0.011*
Transit stations					-0.006	0.004	-0.004	0.004
Retail and recreation					0.000	0.004	0.001	0.005
Grocery and pharmacy					0.015	0.007*	0.015	0.007*
Constant	9.871	34.110	33.833	35.216	43.645	35.055	19.762	38.294
Log Likelihood	- 2025.79		-2017.98		-2010.24		-2008.57
AIC	4057.57		4045.97		4034.48		4035.14
BIC	4072.40		4070.68		4069.07		4079.61

	Commercial burglary
	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4
	B	S.E.	B	S.E.	B	S.E.	B	S.E.
Trend	- 0.025	0.011*	- 0.008	0.011	- 0.031	0.011**	-0.025	0.012*
Temperature	- 0.019	0.011†	-0.040	0.011***	-0.022	0.011*	- 0.027	0.012*
State of Emergency
SoE period			0.308	0.048***			0.181	0.075*
SoE period x intensity			-0.165	0.062**			- 0.231	0.073**
Ambient population
Residential					0.004	0.010	0.016	0.011
Transit stations					-0.009	0.004*	-0.003	0.004
Retail and recreation					0.002	0.004	0.000	0.005
Grocery and pharmacy					0.015	0.007*	0.017	0.007*
Constant	66.444	34.378	13.740	35.424	83.586	34.806	67.190	38.207
Log Likelihood	-2253.43		2231.75		-2230.08		-2223.27
AIC	4512.86		4473.51		4474.16		4464.54
BIC	4527.68		4498.21		4508.75		4509.01

	Theft from/of vehicle
	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4
	B	S.E.	B	S.E.	B	S.E.	B	S.E.
Trend	-0.010	0.008	0.007	0.009	-0.010	0.008	- 0.004	0.009
Temperature	-0.016	0.008†	- 0.036	0.009***	-0.021	0.008*	-0.026	0.009**
State of Emergency
SoE period			0.213	0.035			0.125	0.057*
SoE period x intensity			- 0.034	0.046			-0.066	0.053
Ambient population
Residential					0.003	0.008	0.006	0.008
Transit stations					-0.006	0.003†	-0.003	0.003
Retail and recreation					-0.002	0.003	-0.001	0.004
Grocery and pharmacy					0.015	0.006**	0.015	0.006**
Constant	18.915	26.462	-34.538	27.012	21.052	26.347	0.945	28.783
Log Likelihood	-2725.55		-2698.97		-2694.22		-2691.36
AIC	5457.10		5407.94		5402.44		5400.72
BIC	5471.92		5432.65		5437.03		5445.19

	Bicycle theft
	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4
	B	S.E.	B	S.E.	B	S.E.	B	S.E.
Trend	-0.036	0.007***	- 0.054	0.007***	0.050	0.007***	-0.047	0.008***
Temperature	0.006	0.007	0.026	0.007***	0.033	0.007***	0.031	0.007***
State of Emergency
SoE period			-0.184	0.035***			0.009	0.050
SoE period x intensity			-0.100	0.044*			0.077	0.050
Ambient population
Residential					-0.023	0.007**	-0.028	0.008***
Transit stations					- 0.006	0.003*	-0.007	0.003*
Retail and recreation					0.005	0.003†	0.007	0.003*
Grocery and pharmacy					0.035	0.005***	0.034	0.005***
Constant	107.380	23.199	163.602	22.508	153.065	21.964	142.711	24.333
Log Likelihood	-3338.23		-3286.16		-3223.70		-3222.36
AIC	6682.46		6582.32		6461.41		6462.72
BIC	6697.28		6607.02		6496.00		6507.19

	Sexual assault
	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4
	B	S.E.	B	S.E.	B	S.E.	B	S.E.
Trend	0.011	0.020	-0.036	0.021†	-0.021	0.020	-0.029	0.022
Temperature	0.005	0.020	0.032	0.021	0.026	0.021	0.030	0.021
State of Emergency
SoE period			-0.127	0.097			-0.023	0.138
SoE period x intensity			- 0.236	0.120†			- 0.250	0.137
Ambient population
Residential					0.001	0.020	0.014	0.021
Transit stations					0.009	0.007	0.011	0.008
Retail and recreation					0.000	0.008	- 0.005	0.008
Grocery and pharmacy					0.008	0.013	0.009	0.013
Constant	21.603	63.175	99.634	64.165	54.831	63.769	80.185	67.800
Log Likelihood	1-064.61		- 1053.81		-1054.60		- 1052.66
AIC	2135.21		2117.62		2123.20		2123.32
BIC	2150.04		2142.33		2157.79		2167.79

	Violence and injury
	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4
	B	S.E.	B	S.E.	B	S.E.	B	S.E.
Trend	- 0.005	0.007	-0.009	0.007	- 0.014	0.007*	- 0.016	0.007*
Temperature	0.000	0.006	0.005	0.007	0.011	0.007	0.012	0.007^†
State of Emergency
SoE period			0.029	0.029			0.003	0.044
SoE period x intensity			- 0.140	0.038***			0.100	0.042*
Ambient population
Residential					0.013	0.006*	-0.008	0.007
Transit stations					-0.009	0.002***	- 0.008	0.003**
Retail and recreation					0.006	0.002*	0.004	0.003^†
Grocery and pharmacy					0.013	0.004**	0.014	0.004**
Constant	3.285	20.330	17.746	21.008	31.259	20.510	38.621	21.968
Log Likelihood	-2657.95		- 2648.60		2637.59		-2634.71
AIC	5321.91		5307.19		5289.18		5287.42
BIC	5336.73		5331.90		5323.77		5331.89

***:p < .001, **:p < .01, *:p < .05, : ^†p <.10
Number of observations = 1034; number of prefectures = 47; number of weeks = 22

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ISSN: 2193-7680

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